Strava Running Pace Calculator (Predictor)

Running Time Prediction Formula:

\[ T_{new} = T_{ref} \times \left(\frac{D_{new}}{D_{ref}}\right)^k \]

Reference Time (T_ref):

minutes

Reference Distance (D_ref):

New Distance (D_new):

Exponent (k):

(default 1.06)

Predicted Time (T_new):

Predicted Pace:

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1. What is the Running Time Prediction Formula?

The running time prediction formula estimates how long it will take to run a new distance based on your performance at a reference distance. It accounts for the non-linear relationship between distance and running time.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the running time prediction formula:

\[ T_{new} = T_{ref} \times \left(\frac{D_{new}}{D_{ref}}\right)^k \]

Where:

\( T_{new} \) — Predicted time for new distance (minutes)
\( T_{ref} \) — Known time for reference distance (minutes)
\( D_{new} \) — New distance you want to predict (km)
\( D_{ref} \) — Reference distance (km)
\( k \) — Exponent (typically ≈1.06 for running)

Explanation: The exponent k accounts for the fact that running pace slows slightly as distance increases. The default value of 1.06 is based on empirical data from runners.

3. Importance of Pace Prediction

Details: Accurate pace prediction helps runners plan training, set realistic goals, and strategize race pacing. It's particularly useful when preparing for a new race distance.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips:

Use a recent race time or time trial for best accuracy
The reference distance should be similar to your new distance for best results
Adjust the exponent k if you know your personal fatigue curve

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Why is the exponent k approximately 1.06?
A: Research shows that running times increase slightly faster than distance (not linearly). The 1.06 value comes from analysis of race performances across distances.

Q2: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It's reasonably accurate for most runners when predicting between similar distances (e.g., 5k to 10k). Accuracy decreases for very different distances (e.g., 5k to marathon).

Q3: Should I use km or miles?
A: The calculator works with any unit as long as you're consistent (use the same unit for both distances).

Q4: Why does my predicted marathon time seem too fast?
A: The formula doesn't account for "the wall" in marathons. For marathon predictions, consider using a higher k value (1.07-1.08).

Q5: Can I use this for trail running?
A: The formula works best for road running. Trail running with elevation changes may require adjustments.