1. What is the Race Pace Predictor?

The Race Pace Predictor estimates your finish time for a new race distance based on your performance at a reference distance. It uses a mathematical model that accounts for the non-linear relationship between running speed and distance.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the following formula:

Where:

• \( T_{new} \) — Predicted time for new distance
• \( T_{ref} \) — Your known time for reference distance
• \( D_{new} \) — The new race distance you want to predict
• \( D_{ref} \) — The reference distance you've already run
• \( k \) — Exponent (typically ≈1.06 for running)

Explanation: The exponent k accounts for the fact that runners slow down as race distance increases, but not in a strictly linear fashion.

3. Importance of Pace Prediction

Details: Accurate pace prediction helps runners set realistic goals, plan race strategies, and optimize training for different distances.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips:

• Enter your recent race time (in minutes) and the distance you ran
• Enter the new distance you want to predict
• The default exponent of 1.06 works well for most runners, but you can adjust it
• All values must be positive numbers

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: How accurate is this prediction?
A: Predictions are typically within 2-5% of actual times for distances not too far from your reference race.

Q2: What's the best reference distance to use?
A: Use a recent race distance closest to your target distance for best accuracy.

Q3: Why is the exponent ≈1.06?
A: Research shows this value best represents how running speed changes with distance for most runners.

Q4: Does this work for ultra-marathons?
A: The formula becomes less accurate for distances much longer than marathons, where other factors dominate.

Q5: Can I use km instead of miles?
A: Yes, as long as you're consistent with your units (use all km or all miles).