Rennzeit-Prognose

Race Time Prediction Formula:

\[ T_{new} = T_{ref} \times \left(\frac{D_{new}}{D_{ref}}\right)^k \]

Reference Time (T_ref):

minutes

Reference Distance (D_ref):

km or miles

New Distance (D_new):

km or miles

Exponent (k):

(typically 1.06)

Predicted Time (T_new):

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1. What is the Race Time Prediction Formula?

The race time prediction formula estimates how long it will take to run a new distance based on your performance at a reference distance. It accounts for the non-linear relationship between distance and running time.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the following equation:

\[ T_{new} = T_{ref} \times \left(\frac{D_{new}}{D_{ref}}\right)^k \]

Where:

\( T_{new} \) — Predicted time for new distance
\( T_{ref} \) — Your time at reference distance
\( D_{new} \) — New distance you want to predict for
\( D_{ref} \) — Reference distance you've already run
\( k \) — Exponent (typically 1.06 for running)

Explanation: The formula accounts for the fact that running pace slows slightly as distance increases. The exponent (k) represents how much pace slows with distance.

3. Importance of Race Time Prediction

Details: Accurate race time prediction helps runners set appropriate pace goals, plan training, and estimate finish times for races of different distances.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your known time for a reference distance, both distances (in the same units), and the exponent value (1.06 is typical for running). All values must be positive numbers.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's a typical value for k?
A: For running, k is typically around 1.06. For elite runners it might be slightly lower (~1.04), while for beginners it might be higher (~1.08).

Q2: Does this work for any distances?
A: It works best for predicting between similar race types (e.g., 5K to 10K). Predictions from very short to very long distances may be less accurate.

Q3: Why does pace slow with distance?
A: Several factors including glycogen depletion, muscle fatigue, and the need to pace yourself over longer periods.

Q4: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It provides a reasonable estimate but actual performance depends on training specificity, course difficulty, and race conditions.

Q5: Can I use this for other sports?
A: Yes, but the exponent (k) will vary. For swimming it's typically around 1.12, and for cycling around 1.01.