Half Marathon Pace Equation:
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This calculator estimates your half marathon pace based on your current 10K pace using a well-established mathematical relationship between different race distances. It accounts for the increased fatigue and reduced speed in longer races.
The calculator uses the following equation:
Where:
Explanation: The equation models how pace slows as distance increases, with the exponent accounting for fatigue effects.
Details: Accurate pace prediction helps runners set realistic goals, plan race strategies, and train effectively for longer distances.
Tips: Enter your current 10K pace in minutes and seconds per mile. The default exponent (1.06) works for most runners, but you can adjust it based on your personal endurance characteristics.
Q1: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It provides a good estimate for most runners, but individual variations in endurance will affect actual performance.
Q2: Should I use my PR or current fitness pace?
A: Use your current fitness pace for the most accurate prediction of what you can run now.
Q3: Why does the exponent k matter?
A: The exponent accounts for how much your pace slows with distance. More endurance-trained runners may use a slightly lower value.
Q4: Can I use this for marathon pace prediction?
A: The same principle applies, but the exponent might need adjustment for the longer distance.
Q5: How should I adjust for course difficulty?
A: The prediction assumes flat terrain. Add 2-5% to your pace for hilly courses.