1. What is the Pace Prediction Formula?

The Pace Prediction Formula estimates your running pace for a new distance based on your performance at a reference distance. It accounts for the non-linear relationship between distance and running pace.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the pace prediction formula:

Where:

• \( P_{new} \) — Predicted pace for new distance
• \( P_{ref} \) — Known pace at reference distance
• \( D_{ref} \) — Reference distance
• \( D_{new} \) — New target distance
• \( k \) — Exponent (typically ≈1.06)

Explanation: The formula shows that pace increases non-linearly with distance, with the exponent k accounting for fatigue effects over longer distances.

3. Importance of Pace Prediction

Details: Accurate pace prediction helps runners plan training, set realistic goals, and strategize race pacing for different distances.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your current pace for a known distance, the known distance, the new target distance, and the exponent (default 1.06 works for most runners). All values must be positive numbers.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's a typical value for the exponent k?
A: The exponent typically ranges from 1.05 to 1.08, with 1.06 being a good average for most runners.

Q2: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It provides a reasonable estimate but actual performance depends on factors like training specificity, terrain, and weather conditions.

Q3: Can I use this for very different distances?
A: The formula works best for predicting between moderately different distances (e.g., 5K to 10K). Predictions between very different distances (e.g., 5K to marathon) may be less accurate.

Q4: Does this account for different fitness levels?
A: The prediction is based on your current performance, which reflects your current fitness level.

Q5: Should I use miles or kilometers?
A: You can use either, but be consistent - use the same units for all distance inputs.