Marathon-Zeit-Prognose aus Halbmarathon

Marathon Time Prediction Formula:

\[ T_{mar} = T_{half} \times \left(\frac{D_{mar}}{D_{half}}\right)^k \]

Prognostizierte Marathonzeit (T_mar):

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1. What is the Marathon Time Prediction Formula?

The marathon time prediction formula estimates your potential marathon finish time based on your half marathon performance. It accounts for the non-linear relationship between distance and performance time.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the formula:

\[ T_{mar} = T_{half} \times \left(\frac{D_{mar}}{D_{half}}\right)^k \]

Where:

\( T_{mar} \) — Predicted marathon time (minutes)
\( T_{half} \) — Half marathon time (minutes)
\( D_{mar} \) — Marathon distance (26.2 miles)
\( D_{half} \) — Half marathon distance (13.1 miles)
\( k \) — Exponent (typically ≈1.06)

Explanation: The formula accounts for the fact that running speed decreases non-linearly as distance increases. The exponent k (typically around 1.06) reflects this non-linear relationship.

3. Importance of Race Time Prediction

Details: Accurate marathon time prediction helps runners set appropriate pacing strategies, training goals, and race expectations. It's particularly useful for first-time marathoners.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your recent half marathon time in minutes. The default exponent of 1.06 works well for most runners, but you can adjust it based on your personal endurance characteristics.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: How accurate is this prediction?
A: For well-trained runners, it's typically within 2-5% of actual marathon time, assuming similar training and conditions.

Q2: Why is the exponent k ≈ 1.06?
A: Research shows this value best accounts for the non-linear fatigue accumulation over longer distances for most runners.

Q3: Should I use my PR or recent half marathon time?
A: Use a recent time that reflects your current fitness level, not necessarily your personal best.

Q4: Does this work for other distances?
A: Similar formulas can predict between other distances, but the exponent may need adjustment based on the specific distance change.

Q5: What factors affect prediction accuracy?
A: Course difficulty, weather conditions, training specificity, and individual endurance characteristics can all affect actual performance.