1. What is the Marathon Pace Prediction Formula?

The marathon pace prediction formula estimates your potential marathon pace based on your current 5K race pace. It uses a power-law relationship between distance and pace, accounting for the fact that pace decreases non-linearly as distance increases.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the following formula:

Where:

• \( P_{mar} \) — Predicted marathon pace (min/mile)
• \( P_{5k} \) — Your current 5K pace (min/mile)
• \( D_{mar} \) — Marathon distance (26.2 miles)
• \( D_{5k} \) — 5K distance (3.1 miles)
• \( k \) — Exponent (typically 1.06)

Explanation: The formula accounts for the non-linear decrease in pace as race distance increases. The exponent k represents how much your pace slows as distance increases.

3. Importance of Pace Prediction

Details: Accurate pace prediction helps runners set realistic marathon goals, plan training paces, and develop race strategies. It's particularly useful for first-time marathoners.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your current 5K pace in minutes:seconds per mile format. The default exponent of 1.06 works well for most runners, but you can adjust it based on your endurance (higher values for those with better endurance).

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It provides a reasonable estimate for well-trained runners. Actual performance depends on training specificity, course difficulty, and race conditions.

Q2: Should I use my PR or recent 5K time?
A: Use your most recent 5K time that reflects your current fitness level.

Q3: What if I don't have a recent 5K time?
A: Run a 5K time trial or use a recent race of similar duration as a substitute.

Q4: Why is the exponent typically 1.06?
A: Research suggests this value best represents the average pace decay rate for distances from 5K to marathon.

Q5: How should I adjust for hilly courses?
A: For hilly marathons, add 2-5% to your predicted pace depending on the elevation profile.