Half Marathon Prediction Formula:
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The 5K to Half Marathon prediction formula estimates your potential half marathon time based on your current 5K race performance. This is useful for runners planning to move up in distance and wanting to set realistic goals.
The calculator uses the following formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula accounts for the non-linear relationship between race distance and time, as running efficiency typically decreases with longer distances.
Details: Accurate race time prediction helps runners set appropriate pace goals, plan training programs, and avoid starting too fast in longer races.
Tips: Enter your recent 5K time in minutes and seconds. The default exponent of 1.06 works well for most runners, but you can adjust it based on your personal experience (higher values for less endurance, lower for more endurance).
Q1: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It provides a reasonable estimate for runners with balanced speed and endurance. Those with more endurance may beat the prediction, while speed-focused runners may find it challenging.
Q2: Should I use my PR or recent 5K time?
A: Use your most recent race time that reflects your current fitness level, not necessarily your personal best.
Q3: What if I haven't raced a 5K recently?
A: For best results, run a recent 5K time trial at race effort to get an accurate input value.
Q4: How does training affect the prediction?
A: The prediction assumes you've done appropriate training for the half marathon distance. Without proper endurance training, the prediction may be too optimistic.
Q5: Can I use this for other distances?
A: The same formula can be adapted for other distances by changing D_half and D_5k to your target and known distances.